The US freight industry is experiencing a prolonged period of restricted capacity, with current metrics suggesting that supply-side factors are the primary driver of market tension. According to FreightWaves, the National Truckload Rejection Index has climbed to 14.36%, significantly outpacing its six-month average of 10.9%. This elevated status is not a transient spike but a sustained trend, particularly in specialized sectors; flatbed rejections are currently at 23.5%, while refrigerated loads remain at 19.46%.

Industry analysts have identified five key pillars influencing this environment: a contraction in available market capacity, resilient spot rates, steady demand, a strategic shift toward dedicated asset-based services, and increased difficulty in driver recruitment. These findings are supported by recent Q2 earnings reports from major industry players like Knight-Swift, Werner, and J.B. Hunt, confirming that the current state of the market is largely supply-driven.

Regulatory interventions are playing a significant role in this capacity reduction. Carriers have noted that efforts by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) and the Department of Transportation (DOT) to address non-compliant driving schools and revoke fraudulent commercial driver’s licenses have effectively removed lower-cost, non-compliant operators from the supply pool. Furthermore, the departure of certain electronic logging device (ELD) providers has further thinned the ranks of smaller, less-regulated operators. As demand remains steady, these structural changes are preventing the rapid self-correction of capacity that the market typically anticipates, leading to firmer rates even as fuel prices experience downward pressure.